UF1MH141631
Cooperative Agreement
Overview
Grant Description
LEVERAGING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO PREDICT MENTAL HEALTH RISK AMONG YOUTH PRESENTING TO RURAL PRIMARY CARE CLINICS - PROJECT SUMMARY THIS STUDY, IN RESPONSE TO RFA-MH-25-195, AIMS TO ENHANCE, DEPLOY, AND RIGOROUSLY VALIDATE THE DUKE PREDICTIVE MODEL OF ADOLESCENT MENTAL HEALTH (DUKE-PMA), WHICH USES A NOVEL CLINICAL SIGNATURE DERIVED FROM AFFORDABLE, ACCESSIBLE MEASURES TO IDENTIFY YOUTH AT HIGH RISK FOR PSYCHIATRIC ILLNESS IN PRIMARY CARE SETTINGS. THE DUKE-PMA, A NEURAL NETWORK-BASED PREDICTIVE TOOL, HAS ALREADY DEMONSTRATED HIGH ACCURACY IN PREDICTING PSYCHIATRIC RISK ONE YEAR IN ADVANCE IN YOUTH AGED 10-15, USING DATA FROM THE ADOLESCENT BRAIN AND COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT (ABCD) STUDY. NOTABLY, SLEEP DISTURBANCES HAVE EMERGED AS A KEY MODIFIABLE PREDICTOR IN THE MODEL. UNLIKE MOST PREDICTIVE MODELS THAT RELY ON CURRENT SYMPTOMS TO ANTICIPATE OUTCOMES, THE DUKE-PMA BASES ITS PREDICTIONS ON UNDERLYING DISEASE MECHANISMS AND PROTECTIVE FACTORS, MAKING IT BETTER SUITED TO INFORM PREVENTIVE INTERVENTIONS. FURTHERMORE, THE MODEL IDENTIFIES AN ELEVATED P-FACTOR, A GENERAL MEASURE OF PSYCHOPATHOLOGY THAT SPANS MULTIPLE PSYCHIATRIC CONDITIONS, MAKING IT BROADLY APPLICABLE ACROSS DIVERSE YOUTH POPULATIONS. OUR PROJECT WILL BEGIN BY OPTIMIZING THE DUKE-PMA THROUGH THE INCORPORATION OF BEHAVIORAL TASKS FROM THE NIH TOOLBOX TO ENHANCE ITS PREDICTION PERFORMANCE. FOLLOWING DUKE AI HEALTH’S ALGORITHM-BASED CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT OVERSIGHT FRAMEWORK, WE WILL ENSURE THE MODEL ADHERES TO THE HIGHEST STANDARDS OF TRANSPARENCY, QUALITY, AND EQUITY. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL APPLY TRUSTWORTHY AI TECHNIQUES DESIGNED TO REDUCE EFFECTS OF DISTRIBUTION SHIFTS ON MODEL PERFORMANCE TO ENSURE THE MODEL REMAINS EFFECTIVE AND EQUITABLE ACROSS DIVERSE CLINICAL SETTINGS AND DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS. AFTER OPTIMIZATION, THE DUKE-PMA WILL BE DEPLOYED IN RURAL PRIMARY CARE AND PEDIATRIC CLINICS, WHERE ACCESS TO MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES AND RESEARCH PARTICIPATION IS OFTEN LIMITED. WE WILL ENROLL 2,000 YOUTH FROM RURAL CLINICS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDWEST, PARTNERING WITH THE SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND RESEARCH (STAR) CLINICAL RESEARCH NETWORK. WE WILL ALSO EXPLORE THE BENEFIT OF ADDING A MEASURE OF HOME ENVIRONMENTS TO THE DUKE-PMA THROUGH DIGITAL ENVIROTYPING, WHICH USES AN AI-DRIVEN APPROACH TO ASSESS HOME ENVIRONMENTS REMOTELY WITHOUT REQUIRING IN-PERSON VISITS, MAKING IT MUCH MORE RESOURCE-EFFICIENT AND ACCESSIBLE THAN CURRENT APPROACHES. MODEL PERFORMANCE WILL BE VALIDATED THROUGH PSYCHIATRIC DIAGNOSTICS CONDUCTED ONE YEAR AFTER THE INITIAL ASSESSMENT. IF SUCCESSFUL, THIS PROJECT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRANSFORM MENTAL HEALTH RESOURCE ALLOCATION PARTICULARLY IN UNDERSERVED COMMUNITIES BY OFFERING AN ACCESSIBLE, LOW-COST, DATA-DRIVEN APPROACH TO IDENTIFY VULNERABLE YOUTH AND HIGHLIGHT MODIFIABLE RISK FACTORS FOR EARLY INTERVENTION.
Awardee
Funding Goals
THE MISSION OF THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF MENTAL HEALTH (NIMH) IS TO TRANSFORM THE UNDERSTANDING AND TREATMENT OF MENTAL ILLNESSES THROUGH BASIC AND CLINICAL RESEARCH, PAVING THE WAY FOR PREVENTION, RECOVERY, AND CURE. IN MAY 2020, NIMH RELEASED ITS NEW STRATEGIC PLAN FOR RESEARCH. THE NEW STRATEGIC PLAN BUILDS ON THE SUCCESSES OF PREVIOUS NIMH STRATEGIC PLANS BY PROVIDING A FRAMEWORK FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND EXPLORATION, AND ADDRESSING NEW CHALLENGES IN MENTAL HEALTH. THE NEW STRATEGIC PLAN OUTLINES FOUR HIGH-LEVEL GOALS: GOAL 1: DEFINE THE BRAIN MECHANISMS UNDERLYING COMPLEX BEHAVIORS GOAL 2: EXAMINE MENTAL ILLNESS TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE LIFESPAN GOAL 3: STRIVE FOR PREVENTION AND CURES GOAL 4: STRENGTHEN THE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT OF NIMH-SUPPORTED RESEARCH THESE FOUR GOALS FORM A BROAD ROADMAP FOR THE INSTITUTE'S RESEARCH PRIORITIES OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, BEGINNING WITH THE FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE OF THE BRAIN AND BEHAVIOR, AND EXTENDING THROUGH EVIDENCE-BASED SERVICES THAT IMPROVE PUBLIC HEALTH OUTCOMES. THE INSTITUTE'S OVERALL FUNDING STRATEGY IS TO SUPPORT A BROAD SPECTRUM OF INVESTIGATOR-INITIATED RESEARCH IN FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE, WITH INCREASING USE OF INSTITUTE-SOLICITED INITIATIVES FOR APPLIED RESEARCH WHERE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT IS A SHORT-TERM MEASURE OF SUCCESS. THE NEW STRATEGIC PLAN ALSO ADDRESSES A NUMBER OF CROSS-CUTTING THEMES THAT ARE RELEVANT TO ALL RESEARCH SUPPORTED BY NIMH, THESE THEMES HIGHLIGHT AREAS WHERE NIMH-FUNDED SCIENCE MAY HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT, BRIDGE GAPS, AND OFFER NOVEL APPROACHES TO ACCELERATE ADVANCES IN MENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH. FOR EXAMPLE, NIMH VALUES A COMPREHENSIVE RESEARCH AGENDA THAT TAKES AN INCLUSIVE APPROACH THAT ENSURES RESEARCH INTERESTS ARE VARIED, MAINTAIN DIVERSE PARTICIPATION AND PARTNERSHIPS, AND ACHIEVE RESEARCH GOALS ACROSS MULTIPLE TIMEFRAMES. THIS INCLUDES DIVERSE METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS, AND MODELS, RESEARCH ADDRESSING COMPLEX BASIC, TRANSLATIONAL, AND APPLIED QUESTIONS, RESEARCH INCLUDING BOTH SEXES AND, AS APPROPRIATE, GENETIC BACKGROUND, AND, PARTICIPANTS FROM DIVERSE RACIAL AND ETHNIC BACKGROUNDS, AND ACROSS GENDER IDENTITIES, GEOGRAPHICAL CONTEXT, SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, NEUROTYPE, AND AGE OFFERING THE BEST POSSIBLE REPRESENTATION, FOR THE BROADEST NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS WHO MAY ULTIMATELY BENEFIT FROM THESE SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. TO ACCOMPLISH THE GOALS OUTLINED IN THE NEW STRATEGIC PLAN, NIMH WILL SUPPORT RESEARCH THAT AIMS: TO CHARACTERIZE THE GENOMIC, MOLECULAR, CELLULAR, AND CIRCUIT COMPONENTS CONTRIBUTING TO BRAIN ORGANIZATION AND FUNCTION, TO IDENTIFY THE DEVELOPMENTAL, FUNCTIONAL, AND REGULATORY MECHANISMS RELEVANT TO COGNITIVE, AFFECTIVE, AND SOCIAL DOMAINS, ACROSS UNITS OF ANALYSIS, AND, TO GENERATE AND VALIDATE NOVEL TOOLS, TECHNIQUES, AND MEASURES TO QUANTIFY CHANGES IN THE ACTIVITY OF MOLECULES, CELLS, CIRCUITS, AND CONNECTOMES. TO DISCOVER GENE VARIANTS AND OTHER GENOMIC ELEMENTS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MENTAL ILLNESSES IN DIVERSE POPULATIONS, TO ADVANCE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE COMPLEX ETIOLOGY OF MENTAL ILLNESSES USING MOLECULAR EPIDEMIOLOGIC APPROACHES THAT INCORPORATE INDIVIDUAL GENETIC INFORMATION IN LARGE COHORTS, TO ELUCIDATE HOW HUMAN GENETIC VARIATION AFFECTS THE COORDINATION OF MOLECULAR, CELLULAR, AND PHYSIOLOGICAL NETWORKS SUPPORTING HIGHER-ORDER FUNCTIONS AND EMERGENT PROPERTIES OF NEUROBIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS, AND, TO DEVELOP NOVEL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES FOR THE ANALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE GENETIC, MULTI-OMIC DATA AS IT APPLIES TO MENTAL HEALTH. TO UTILIZE CONNECTOMIC APPROACHES TO IDENTIFY BRAIN NETWORKS AND CIRCUIT COMPONENTS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO VARIOUS ASPECTS OF MENTAL FUNCTION AND DYSFUNCTION, TO DETERMINE THROUGH BRAIN-WIDE ANALYSIS HOW CHANGES IN THE PHYSIOLOGICAL PROPERTIES OF MOLECULES, CELLS, AND CIRCUITS CONTRIBUTE TO MENTAL ILLNESSES, TO DEVELOP MOLECULAR, CELLULAR, AND CIRCUIT-LEVEL BIOMARKERS OF IMPAIRED NEURAL FUNCTION IN HUMANS, AND, TO DEVELOP INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES, INCLUDING NEW IMAGING, COMPUTATIONAL, PHARMACOLOGICAL, AND GENETIC TOOLS TO INTERROGATE AND MODULATE CIRCUIT ACTIVITY AND STRUCTURE ALTERED IN MENTAL ILLNESSES. TO ELUCIDATE THE MECHANISMS CONTRIBUTING TO THE TRAJECTORIES OF BRAIN DEVELOPMENT AND BEHAVIOR, AND, TO CHARACTERIZE THE EMERGENCE AND PROGRESSION OF MENTAL ILLNESSES, AND IDENTIFYING SENSITIVE PERIODS FOR OPTIMAL INTERVENTION. TO DETERMINE EARLY RISK AND PROTECTIVE FACTORS, AND RELATED MECHANISMS, TO SERVE AS NOVEL INTERVENTION GROUPS, AND, TO DEVELOP RELIABLE AND ROBUST BIOMARKERS AND ASSESSMENT TOOLS TO PREDICT ILLNESS ONSET, COURSE, AND ACROSS DIVERSE POPULATIONS. TO DEVELOP NOVEL INTERVENTIONS USING A MECHANISM-INFORMED, EXPERIMENTAL THERAPEUTICS APPROACH, AND, TO DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT MEASUREMENT STRATEGIES TO FACILITATE MECHANISM-BASED INTERVENTION DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING. TO INVESTIGATE PERSONALIZED INTERVENTION STRATEGIES ACROSS DISEASE PROGRESSION AND DEVELOPMENT, AND, TO DEVELOP AND REFINE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACHES AND RESEARCH DESIGNS THAT CAN BE USED TO INFORM AND TEST PERSONALIZED INTERVENTIONS. TO DEVELOP AND TEST APPROACHES FOR ADAPTING, COMBINING, AND SEQUENCING INTERVENTIONS TO ACHIEVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON THE LIVES AND FUNCTIONING OF PERSONS SEEKING CARE, TO CONDUCT EFFICIENT PRAGMATIC TRIALS THAT EMPLOY NEW TOOLS TO RAPIDLY IDENTIFY, ENGAGE, ASSESS, AND FOLLOW PARTICIPANTS IN THE CONTEXT OF ROUTINE CARE, AND, TO ENHANCE THE PRACTICAL RELEVANCE OF EFFECTIVENESS RESEARCH VIA DEPLOYMENT-FOCUSED, HYBRID, EFFECTIVENESS-IMPLEMENTATION STUDIES. TO EMPLOY ASSESSMENT PLATFORMS WITHIN HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS TO ACCURATELY ASSESS THE DISTRIBUTION AND DETERMINANTS OF MENTAL ILLNESSES AND TO INFORM STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVED SERVICES, TO OPTIMIZE REAL-WORLD DATA COLLECTION SYSTEMS TO IDENTIFY STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVING ACCESS, QUALITY, EFFECTIVENESS, AND CONTINUITY OF MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES, AND, TO COMPARE ALTERNATIVE FINANCING MODELS TO PROMOTE EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT CARE FOR INDIVIDUALS WITH SERIOUS EMOTIONAL DISTURBANCES AND SERIOUS MENTAL ILLNESSES. TO STRENGTHEN PARTNERSHIPS WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO DEVELOP AND VALIDATE STRATEGIES FOR IMPLEMENTING, SUSTAINING, AND CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVE EVIDENCE-BASED PRACTICES, TO BUILD MODELS TO SCALE-UP EVIDENCE-BASED PRACTICES FOR USE IN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE PRIMARY CARE, SPECIALTY CARE AND OTHER SETTINGS, AND, TO DEVELOP DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS AND TECHNOLOGIES THAT INCREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS AND CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT OF MENTAL HEALTH INTERVENTIONS IN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE PRIMARY CARE, SPECIALTY CARE, AND OTHER SETTINGS. TO ADAPT, VALIDATE, AND SCALE-UP PROGRAMS CURRENTLY IN USE THAT IMPROVE MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES FOR UNDERSERVED POPULATIONS, TO DEVELOP AND VALIDATE SERVICE DELIVERY MODELS THAT PROVIDE EVIDENCE-BASED CARE FOR INDIVIDUALS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF MENTAL ILLNESS, TO DEVELOP AND VALIDATE SYSTEMS-LEVEL STRATEGIES USING TECHNOLOGY AND OTHER APPROACHES, TO IDENTIFY, SUPPORT, AND MONITOR THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EVIDENCE-BASED CARE THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF ILLNESS, AND, TO DEVELOP AND VALIDATE DECISION-MAKING MODELS THAT BRIDGE MENTAL HEALTH, MEDICAL, AND OTHER CARE SETTINGS TO INTEGRATE THE APPROPRIATE CARE FOR PEOPLE WITH SERIOUS MENTAL ILLNESSES AND COMORBID MEDICAL CONDITIONS.
Grant Program (CFDA)
Awarding / Funding Agency
Place of Performance
North Carolina
United States
Geographic Scope
State-Wide
Duke University was awarded
AI-Enhanced Mental Health Risk Prediction for Rural Youth
Cooperative Agreement UF1MH141631
worth $15,039,330
from the National Institute of Mental Health in September 2025 with work to be completed primarily in North Carolina United States.
The grant
has a duration of 4 years and
was awarded through assistance program 93.242 Mental Health Research Grants.
The Cooperative Agreement was awarded through grant opportunity Individually Measured Phenotypes to Advance Computational Translation in Mental Health (IMPACT-MH) (U01 Clinical Trial Optional).
Status
(Ongoing)
Last Modified 9/24/25
Period of Performance
9/10/25
Start Date
9/9/29
End Date
Funding Split
$15.0M
Federal Obligation
$0.0
Non-Federal Obligation
$15.0M
Total Obligated
Activity Timeline
Additional Detail
Award ID FAIN
UF1MH141631
SAI Number
UF1MH141631-498887742
Award ID URI
SAI UNAVAILABLE
Awardee Classifications
Private Institution Of Higher Education
Awarding Office
75N700 NIH National Institute of Mental Health
Funding Office
75N700 NIH National Institute of Mental Health
Awardee UEI
TP7EK8DZV6N5
Awardee CAGE
4B478
Performance District
NC-90
Senators
Thom Tillis
Ted Budd
Ted Budd
Modified: 9/24/25