NU2RGH001915

Integrated Modeling to Support the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) and Management of Other Vaccine Preventable Diseases - Background

Mathematical modeling continues to support the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) as it works towards achieving and maintaining wild poliovirus (WPV) eradication, ending the use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), and integrating GPEI activities and assets into other health programs. However, the GPEI was off track prior to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The GPEI faces multiple challenges, including completing WPV eradication, ending the ongoing transmission of serotype 2 vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV2s) five years after the global cessation of serotype 2 OPV for non-emergency use, limited financial and vaccine resources, and the need to recover programmatic activities from the disruptions caused by COVID-19.

Over the next five years, the GPEI still expects to eradicate WPV and coordinate phased cessation of OPV. The introduction of new OPV (NOPV) strains promises to reduce OPV risks, and the licensure of COVID-19 vaccines now makes it a vaccine preventable disease (VPD). Integrated economic, risk, and dynamic disease modeling is needed to identify and support cost-effective strategies for their use.

Objectives

This work aims to extend a highly-successful collaboration that continues to support high-stakes GPEI decision making by providing the results of integrated disease modeling and economic analyses related to managing the polio endgame. This collaboration could further extend to supporting COVID-19 control.

Approach

Building on a previously-developed and actively updated integrated model, the proposed work will provide quantitative analyses to answer priority questions raised by GPEI partners during the polio endgame. Additionally, the proposed work may apply and expand similar collaborative modeling efforts to support better global control, elimination, or eradication of other priority VPDS, including COVID-19.

Outcomes

Short-term outcomes of this work for polio will include characterizing the expected outcomes of updated GPEI strategic plans (anticipated to be available in 2021), modeling poliovirus transmission dynamics and epidemiology in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and other prioritized high-risk areas, exploring different strategies to use NOPV to control VDPV2 outbreaks and complete OPV cessation, and synthesizing lessons learned. Short-term outcomes for other VPDS may include the development of an integrated model for COVID-19.

Intermediate outcomes of this work will include analyses that support informed decisions by the GPEI and other stakeholders related to vaccines, surveillance, containment, and other risk management activities. It will also improve understanding among Ministries of Health and key stakeholders about lessons learned from polio eradication that are relevant to the global control, elimination, and eradication of other VPDS.

Long-term outcomes will include key insights on identified priority issues after the first year, an updated health and economic analysis of the GPEI, and improved understanding and supportive policy development of cost-effective opportunities to better manage global VPDS, taking into consideration the lessons learned from polio eradication efforts.

Anticipated Impacts

This work will provide timely and critical analytical support for domestic and global health leaders as they manage polio and other prioritized VPDS by supporting the development of cost-effective programmatic strategies.

KID Risk

NOT APPLICABLE

93.354 - Public Health Emergency Response: Cooperative Agreement for Emergency Response: Public Health Crisis Response

CDC Office of Financial Resources (OFR) [HHS - CDC]

Center for Global Health (CGH) [HHS - CDC]

Florida United States

State-Wide

Support of Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) using Integrated Modeling (CDC-RFA-GH21-2101)

COVID-19 $100,000 (3%) percent of this Cooperative Agreement was funded by COVID-19 emergency acts including the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021.
Amendment Since initial award the End Date has been extended from 04/14/26 to 04/14/27 and the total obligations have increased 590% from $500,000 to $3,450,000.