NNX17AJ86A

The next generation NextGen National Airspace System (NAS) will change from radar-based technology to ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) surveillance systems-based operations. A multitude of new and existing aviation data sources are expected to become available, such as from voice and data communications, weather forecast, and aircraft health data.

However, several critical challenges exist for the systematic integration and interpretation of the enormous amount of information associated with NAS. The myriad of information offered by various data sources requires appropriate representation and proper fusion methodologies. Furthermore, a large amount of uncertainty is associated with this information, arising from various sources such as aeronautical instrumentation, environment intrinsic variabilities, and human factors.

Complex system safety modeling of multiple failure modes, loss of separation, mechanical and electrical sub-system failure, miscommunications, human automation errors, and weather-related hazards with largely unknown uncertainty is extremely valuable for the safe transition of the present NAS to NextGen concept of operations. In addition, increased demand requirements of the NextGen NAS may lead to higher risk levels due to the reduction of safety margins and may require real-time response for risk mitigation. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a system-wide prognostics framework with rigorous verification and validation methodologies for the proactive health management of the evolving NextGen NAS.

The overall objectives of the proposed study are to develop an integrated real-time system-wide information fusion methodology for prognostics and safety assurance of the National Air Traffic System (ATS). Various sources of uncertainties from operations, sensors and measurements, environments, human-machine interactions, and their coupling effects will be systematically investigated for the accurate failure and risk assessment of the extremely large-scale complex ATS. Proactive prognostics-based risk mitigation planning for the emergent threats to the NextGen ATS will be addressed. A community-based collaborative simulation platform will be developed and deployed for continued sustainable prognostics technology evolution for the ATS safety research.

The proposed research is centered on a generalized Bayesian entropy network modeling large-scale multi-source information arising from key building blocks of the network. Each component will address several key challenges and develop novel techniques to address them. Specifically, the proposed major tasks to achieve the proposed objectives are:

1. System-wide air traffic modeling and failure simulation
2. Multi-modality safety monitoring, detection, and data analysis
3. Human systems integration
4. Uncertainty management and risk assessment
5. Information fusion and prognostics
6. Verification, validation, and safety assurance
7. Integrated education research and demonstration.

The proposed research directly supports the current solicitation and addresses NASA ARMD Strategic Implementation Plan Topic 5: Real-time system-wide safety assurance and the outcomes: Outcome for 2015-2025: Introduction of advanced safety assurance tools and Outcome for 2025-2035: An integrated safety assurance system enabling continuous system-wide safety monitoring. If successful, the proposed research will significantly advance the existing knowledge base for the safety of the future National ATS operations. System resiliency and safety will be significantly enhanced through the accurate prognostics and rigorous verification and validation of the proposed methodology. The proposed study will also generate many fundamental research outcomes that will be beneficial to NASA ARMD programs and the FAA NextGen program.

Arizona State University

43.002 - Aeronautics

Shared Services Center (NSSC) [NASA]

Tempe, Arizona 85281-3670 United States

Single Zip Code

None

Amendment Since initial award the End Date has been extended from 06/14/22 to 06/14/23 and the total obligations have increased 500% from $1,999,999 to $11,999,412.