G23AP00326

Project Title: Earthquake Early Warning, IPAWS, and Over-Alerting: Collaborative Research with California State University Fullerton and University at Albany

Performance Period: 7/1/2023 through 6/30/2024

Plain Language Description:
This project has two main purposes. The first purpose is to examine the ways in which members of the public and official alerting authorities define and understand over-alerting for imminent hazards. The second purpose is to examine the effects of over-alerting for earthquakes and for other hazards in the larger public alerting context, including the nation's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System. This project will explore over-alerting broadly, using multiple definitions and multiple methods to increase validity.

Activities to be Performed:
The research will include three different data collection activities. First, the study team will conduct semi-structured qualitative individual interviews with emergency managers who are authorized alerting authorities (n=20). Second, the team will conduct a quantitative survey of alerting authorities from the five seismically active states along the U.S. West Coast, i.e., Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington (n=159). And third, the team will conduct a quantitative survey of residents of those same states (n=1,200). The work will be carried out collaboratively by Principal Investigators Michele Wood (California State University, Fullerton) and Jeannette Sutton (University at Albany), who have a track record of collaborative warning research, including USGS-funded research.

Deliverables and Expected Outcomes:
Deliverables include a final technical report and two peer-reviewed manuscripts. The first manuscript will identify factors that are associated with public disengagement from earthquake early warning and other imminent threat warning systems. The second manuscript will examine over-alerting, message fatigue, and how members of the public and alerting authorities define, understand, avoid, and respond to over-alerting.

Intended Beneficiary(ies):
Study results will generate useful guidance, including recommendations for alert and warning content and delivery, for U.S. federal agencies, alerting authorities, emergency managers, public safety officials, and business owners who build mobile apps to communicate risk. The project will produce policy recommendations for the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System and the Federal Communications Commission on the use of Wireless Emergency Alerts for catastrophic events. Given the variety of channels delivering earthquake early warning message content, in the absence of evidence-based guidance, over-alerting may inadvertently lead to public disengagement from warning systems. This, in turn, could inhibit the realization of potential warning system benefits such as decreased earthquake-related deaths and injuries. Finally, message receivers may benefit because decision-makers will have scientific evidence informing message design and protocols, which may reduce, and possibly prevent, over-alerting.

Subrecipient Activities:
Not applicable.

CSU Fullerton Auxiliary Services Corporation

15.807 - Earthquake Hazards Program Assistance

USGS Office of Acquisitions and Grants [DOI - USGS]

California United States

State-Wide

USGS Earthquake Hazards Program External Research Support Announcement for Fiscal Year 2023 (G23AS00249)