2335370
Project Grant
Overview
Grant Description
Sbir Phase I: High Fidelity Climate Simulation Powered by Generative Adversarial Networks -The broader/commercial impact of this Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project is the creation of a broad (1,000 outcome), hyperlocal (less than 3 km) climate simulation archive that can be used by power grid planners and energy industry investors to better understand forward-looking risks to grid reliability and renewable energy asset viability.
This simulation data will be pre-computed for all locations within the Electronic Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid, enabling planners and investors to quickly model the probabilistic impact of different renewable energy capacity pathways and different electrification trends. Ultimately, this data will support a more reliable grid and faster energy transition because decision-makers will have access to a single source of future weather data that incorporates extreme events, natural variability, and climate change.
This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project proposes the creation of a climate simulation engine that generates synthetic hourly local weather patterns for many locations and many weather variables (all that are needed to model energy resources such as utility demand, wind generation, and solar generation). The project will not rely on physics-based global climate models due to the computational intensity of those models and the need to model local rather than regional or global weather. Instead, this project will research an innovative combination of statistical simulation with artificial intelligence (AI), leveraging the strengths of each to compensate for the weaknesses of the other. For example, statistical simulation models are precise but do not scale, while AI simulation models can scale almost without limit but are not precise.
The project research will investigate a new method to impose precision (via known statistics) on AI pattern generation, yielding a high-fidelity climate model at scale. The expected technical result of the project is the creation of a simulation engine that can simulate 1,000 outcomes of hyperlocal hourly weather over the state of Texas--with accuracy similar to a pure-statistics model benchmark while keeping the cost of cloud computing resources low. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- Subawards are not planned for this award.
This simulation data will be pre-computed for all locations within the Electronic Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid, enabling planners and investors to quickly model the probabilistic impact of different renewable energy capacity pathways and different electrification trends. Ultimately, this data will support a more reliable grid and faster energy transition because decision-makers will have access to a single source of future weather data that incorporates extreme events, natural variability, and climate change.
This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project proposes the creation of a climate simulation engine that generates synthetic hourly local weather patterns for many locations and many weather variables (all that are needed to model energy resources such as utility demand, wind generation, and solar generation). The project will not rely on physics-based global climate models due to the computational intensity of those models and the need to model local rather than regional or global weather. Instead, this project will research an innovative combination of statistical simulation with artificial intelligence (AI), leveraging the strengths of each to compensate for the weaknesses of the other. For example, statistical simulation models are precise but do not scale, while AI simulation models can scale almost without limit but are not precise.
The project research will investigate a new method to impose precision (via known statistics) on AI pattern generation, yielding a high-fidelity climate model at scale. The expected technical result of the project is the creation of a simulation engine that can simulate 1,000 outcomes of hyperlocal hourly weather over the state of Texas--with accuracy similar to a pure-statistics model benchmark while keeping the cost of cloud computing resources low. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- Subawards are not planned for this award.
Awardee
Funding Goals
THE GOAL OF THIS FUNDING OPPORTUNITY, "NSF SMALL BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH (SBIR)/ SMALL BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER (STTR) PROGRAMS PHASE I", IS IDENTIFIED IN THE LINK: HTTPS://WWW.NSF.GOV/PUBLICATIONS/PUB_SUMM.JSP?ODS_KEY=NSF23515
Grant Program (CFDA)
Awarding / Funding Agency
Place of Performance
Baltimore,
Maryland
21202-4369
United States
Geographic Scope
Single Zip Code
Sunairio was awarded
Project Grant 2335370
worth $275,000
from National Science Foundation in March 2024 with work to be completed primarily in Baltimore Maryland United States.
The grant
has a duration of 7 months and
was awarded through assistance program 47.084 NSF Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships.
The Project Grant was awarded through grant opportunity NSF Small Business Innovation Research / Small Business Technology Transfer Phase I Programs.
SBIR Details
Research Type
SBIR Phase I
Title
SBIR Phase I: High Fidelity Climate Simulation Powered by Generative Adversarial Networks
Abstract
The broader/commercial impact of this Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project is the creation of a broad (1,000 outcome), hyperlocal (less than 3 km) climate simulation archive that can be used by power grid planners and energy industry investors to better understand forward-looking risks to grid reliability and renewable energy asset viability. This simulation data will be pre-computed for all locations within the Electronic Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid, enabling planners and investors to quickly model the probabilistic impact of different renewable energy capacity pathways and different electrification trends. Ultimately, this data will support a more reliable grid and faster energy transition because decision-makers will have access to a single source of future weather data that incorporates extreme events, natural variability, and climate change.
This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project proposes the creation of a climate simulation engine that generates synthetic hourly local weather patterns for many locations and many weather variables (all that are needed to model energy resources such as utility demand, wind generation, and solar generation). The project will not rely on physics-based global climate models due to the computational intensity of those models and the need to model local rather than regional or global weather. Instead, this project will research an innovative combination of statistical simulation with artificial intelligence (AI), leveraging the strengths of each to compensate for the weaknesses of the other. For example, statistical simulation models are precise but do not scale, while AI simulation models can scale almost without limit but are not precise. The project research will investigate a new method to impose precision (via known statistics) on AI pattern generation, yielding a high-fidelity climate model at scale. The expected technical result of the project is the creation of a simulation engine that can simulate 1,000 outcomes of hyperlocal hourly weather over the state of Texas--with accuracy similar to a pure-statistics model benchmark while keeping the cost of cloud computing resources low.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
Topic Code
AA
Solicitation Number
NSF 23-515
Status
(Complete)
Last Modified 3/5/24
Period of Performance
3/1/24
Start Date
10/31/24
End Date
Funding Split
$275.0K
Federal Obligation
$0.0
Non-Federal Obligation
$275.0K
Total Obligated
Activity Timeline
Additional Detail
Award ID FAIN
2335370
SAI Number
None
Award ID URI
SAI EXEMPT
Awardee Classifications
Small Business
Awarding Office
491503 TRANSLATIONAL IMPACTS
Funding Office
491503 TRANSLATIONAL IMPACTS
Awardee UEI
STM9CN64Q516
Awardee CAGE
90ZJ2
Performance District
MD-07
Senators
Benjamin Cardin
Chris Van Hollen
Chris Van Hollen
Modified: 3/5/24