Thermospheric Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for Future NASA/Heliophysics Missions

Background
NASA/NSSC has a requirement for Thermospheric Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for Future NASA/Heliophysics Missions. The goal of this contract is to quantify how the unique measurement capabilities of the GDC Trailblazer and DYNAMIC missions contribute to thermospheric specification and prediction relative to existing or emerging observational systems. NASA/NSSC intends to issue a sole source contract to LEOCAST SPACE LLC, determined to be the sole provider for these OSSEs. The performance will take place at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).

Work Details
The contractor will conduct targeted OSSEs employing a physics-based thermospheric model as part of assimilation experiments. Tasks include:

1. Constructing synthetic observations and errors for thermospheric parameters sensed by the GDC Trailblazer and DAPHNE missions based on current mission CONOPS and instrument performance requirements.

2. Designing OSSEs to isolate the impact of specific GDC Trailblazer and DAPHNE measurement types, quantifying their contribution to thermospheric specification and short-term prediction.

3. Conducting OSSEs with various scenarios including in situ GDC Trailblazer/MoSAIC observations (composition, temperature, winds), remotely sensed DAPHNE observations (day-time relative composition profiles, day-time temperature profiles, winds), GNSS-derived orbit-effective mass densities, and combinations of observables.

4. Utilizing a nature run driven by realistic storm-time forcing and a control/analysis framework estimating key drivers like solar irradiance and geomagnetic indices during representative geomagnetic storm periods.

Period of Performance
August 1, 2026 (or upon award) to September 30, 2027.

Place of Performance
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).

Bidder Requirements
Bidders must demonstrate capabilities relevant to conducting Thermospheric Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) as outlined in the Statement of Work. Specific qualifications related to experience with physics-based thermospheric models and data assimilation techniques are implied.

Incumbent Analysis (see Incumbents section for more detail)
This opportunity appears to have a confirmed incumbent based on closely related prior work under contract 80NSSC26C0265 awarded to Leocast Space (value $223,468) for transitioning physics-based thermospheric data assimilation for next-generation LEO drag forecasting. The OSSE effort similarly calls for constructing synthetic thermospheric observations and errors and running assimilation experiments using a physics-based thermospheric model to support thermospheric specification and short-term prediction during representative storm periods. The prior focus on thermospheric data assimilation for LEO applications appears to be a direct continuation of the modeling/assimilation approach needed for these OSSEs.