Reentry Events and Impact Location Prediction

OUSD (R&E) CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY AREA(S): Emerging Threat Reduction The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), 22 CFR Parts 120-130, which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services, including export of sensitive technical data, or the Export Administration Regulation (EAR), 15 CFR Parts 730-774, which controls dual use items. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals (FNs), their country(ies) of origin, the type of visa or work permit possessed, and the statement of work (SOW) tasks intended for accomplishment by the FN(s) in accordance with the Announcement. Offerors are advised foreign nationals proposed to perform on this topic may be restricted due to the technical data under US Export Control Laws. OBJECTIVE: Delivery of software capability that automatically detects reentry events and predicts the impact location and time. DESCRIPTION: Reentry events present a specific challenge and inherent risk to space operations. A reentry refers to the return of a spacecraft into Earth's atmosphere. There are a wide range of reasons as to why a reentry may be occurring but regardless of the motivation, detecting, tracking, and predicting impact is critical to the Space Domain Awareness (SDA) community. Space Systems Command (SSC) Space Domain Awareness (SDA) Tap Lab is seeking solutions to provide a software capability that can automatically detect reentry events and predict the impact time and location. The software product must be able to be integrated into existing toolchains that are used by USSF operators and the SDA Tap Lab. As this capability is only one specific functionality to be used in conjunction with other tools to provide a wholistic understanding of space domain awareness and space operations, it is pivotal that the solution be able to seamless integrate with existing systems through API call. The solution must also meet all development and operational requirements for system integration and use on classified systems. PHASE I: The Phase I will focus on conducting a feasibility study to demonstrate the technical and scientific merit of developing a software capability for detecting reentry events and predicting impact locations and times. This feasibility study would involve demonstrating a framework design as a proof of concept to show that such a capability is achievable. The proposed solution should be able to accurately detect reentry events and provide predictions regarding the impact area. Additionally, the feasibility study should include a plan for integrating the software capability into existing toolchains used by USSF operators and the SDA Tap Lab. This integration plan should outline how the solution will seamlessly integrate with existing systems through API calls and meet all development and operational requirements for use on classified systems. Overall, the Phase I topic description would lay the groundwork for further development and refinement of the software capability in subsequent phases. PHASE II: Phase II will entail developing and refining the concept established in Phase I with a specific focus on enhancing evaluation metrics such as accuracy, precision, F1 score, and overall model performance. This phase will involve iterative improvements to the software capability based on insights gained from Phase I, aiming to enhance the accuracy and reliability of reentry event detection and prediction. Furthermore, Phase II will expand the scope of input data to encompass a wider breadth of reentry events, thereby enhancing the robustness and effectiveness of the software capability. This expanded dataset will enable the model to capture a more comprehensive range of reentry scenarios, improving its predictive capabilities and overall performance. Additionally, Phase II will involve rigorous testing and validation of the enhanced software capability to ensure its effectiveness across various operational scenarios. This testing will involve simulated and real-world data to validate the accuracy and reliability of the reentry event detection and prediction algorithms. PHASE III DUAL USE APPLICATIONS: Phase III will involve scaling the finalized model developed in Phase II to encompass the analysis of all launch events, not just reentry events, thereby broadening its scope and utility. This expanded capability will enable the software to detect and predict the impact locations and times of various launch events, including rocket launches and other space activities. Furthermore, Phase III will focus on expanding the notification functionality of the software to provide timely alerts and notifications regarding all significant launch events. This enhanced notification system will ensure that relevant stakeholders receive actionable information in real-time or near-real-time, enabling them to respond effectively to emerging space events. Moreover, Phase III will explore the dual-use potential of the software solution, identifying opportunities for its application beyond military and national security contexts. This may include adaptation for commercial space operators, international partners, and other stakeholders interested in enhancing their space situational awareness and operational readiness. REFERENCES: 1. C. Bhattacharyya & S. Bhattacharyya, "Detecting Re-entry of a Moving Object in an Irregular Space", IEEE, January 2009.; KEYWORDS: Reentry event; impact prediction; space domain awareness; SDA