Operational Defense Effectiveness Assessments for Missile Raid Scenarios

RT&L FOCUS AREA(S): Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning TECHNOLOGY AREA(S): Information Systems OBJECTIVE: Develop a methodology and computer system that allows analysts to create and display operational defense effectiveness assessments for missile raid scenarios. DESCRIPTION: This topic seeks development of efficient solution techniques to perform operational defense effectiveness assessments for missile raid scenarios. Current operational effectiveness assessments (such as geographic heatmaps) that calculate and display the probability of engagement success across a geographic region (P[ES]), where P[ES] is the probability that a missile threat is successfully intercepted, are often confined to single-threat scenarios. For a single threat, multiple target locations can be evaluated and the P[ES] can be calculated via simulation for each one. By combining these probabilities, a heatmap picture can be constructed showing the relative protection available in different parts of a defended area. Missile raids of multiple simultaneous threats directed at multiple targets can be modeled and simulated, but the simple metrics and clear interpretation of the results for the single threat case are not easily extrapolated to raid scenarios where all threats could target the same location or may target different locations. Evaluating these raid scenarios entails significant mathematical and computational complexity because the combinations of possible threat aimpoints grows exponentially with the number of threats in a raid. This topic desires solutions that provide meaningful metrics, create accompanying efficient solution techniques and support suitable information dispay to perform operational effectiveness assessments for missile raid scenarios. Without loss of generality, assume that the probability of primary interest in a raid evaluation is the probability of a leaker across multiple threats. The concept of simple operational effectiveness assessments, like a geographic heatmap, must be extended to consider how to display the missile defense system effectiveness and performance when defending against raid scenarios. PHASE I: Define meaningful metrics for raid scenarios. Design and develop methods and algorithms for a proof of concept computer system that allows analysts to predict and display the operational effectiveness and performance of the missile defense system against a given missile raid based on a limited number of simulation runs and replications. Demonstrate that the predictions are sufficiently accurate across a geographic region. PHASE II: Expand the methodology and computer system to minimize the computational resources needed to create and display a complete missile raid operational effectiveness assessment. Demonstrate this operational effectiveness assessment for multiple missile raids of varying complexity. Coordinate with the government sponsor during prototype design and development to ensure that the delivered products will be relevant to ongoing and planned missile defense projects. PHASE III DUAL USE APPLICATIONS: Scale-up the capability from the prototype utilizing the new hardware and/or software technologies developed in Phase II into a mature, full-scale, field-able capability. Work with missile defense integrators to integrate the technology for a missile defense system level test-bed and test in a relevant environment. REFERENCES: 1. Pavalko, W., K. Chevli, and M. Monius. 2000. Theater Ballistic Missile Defense Analyses. John Hopkins APL Technical Digest 21(2):261-268. ; 2. Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2019. 2019 Missile Defense Review (see https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jan/17/2002080666/-1/-1/1/2019-MISSILE-DEFENSE-REVIEW.PDF accessed: 7 January 2020). ; 3. Ender, T., R. Leurck, B. Weaver, P. Miceli, W. Blair, P. West, and D. Mavris. 2010. Systems-of-Systems Analysis of Ballistic Missile Defense Architecture Effectiveness Through Surrogate Modeling and Simulation. IEEE Systems Journal 4(2):156-166.