Nuclear Plume Advisory Algorithm

OUSD (R&E) CRITICAL TECHNOLOGY AREA(S): Integrated Sensing and Cyber OBJECTIVE: DTRA seeks methods to detect the plume from an atmospheric nuclear explosion and derive plume characteristics (height, extent, direction of movement, radiation hazard, etc.) from multisource satellite observations. DESCRIPTION: The United States, its allies, and its partners must be capable of conducting continuous combat operations in a nuclear environment. Accordingly, to mitigate the severity of nuclear weapon effects on military operations, the Department of Defense needs the ability to give sufficient warning so units can maneuver and avoid areas of impending or actual residual radiation. With advancements in Earth observation (EO) satellites, the possibility of spaceborne products for aerosol layer height or plume injection height have recently emerged with increased global-scale spatiotemporal resolution. However, there is still a need to evaluate the nuclear plume column radiative effects, develop satellite remote-sensing techniques, and refine algorithms for retrieving plume characteristics. This effort will demonstrate the ability to produce detailed information on nuclear plume movements and projected fallout hazard areas to support planning and conduct operations in a fallout-contaminated environment. PHASE I: This effort will focus on determining which satellite products are most appropriate for deriving plume characteristics near a nuclear detonation event and estimating downwind plume rise height under multiple aerosol loadings. PHASE II: This effort will develop prototype algorithms and demonstrate on simulated scenes representing satellite products from modeled nuclear plumes that will be made available during at the start of the phase. PHASE III DUAL USE APPLICATIONS: This effort will develop an application to collect satellite data; execute the nuclear advisory algorithms for producing a fallout plume forecast; and provide a graphical display tool for viewing the various satellite and residual radiation datasets. The components of the application should be able to operate in a decision support mode or an archive mode. The archive mode allows the user to re-run with new user-specified parameters and view historical datasets. The application must be able to deploy onto a DoD network with the appropriate software cyber security. The dual-use application is as a system for civilian use in support of crisis response following a nuclear detonation. REFERENCES: 1. Bachmeier, S., 2020, Fire signatures following a large explosion in Beirut, Lebanonhttps://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/37877; 2. Glasstone and Dolan, 1977, S. Glasstone, P.J. Golan The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Department of Defensehttps://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA087568.pdf; 3. Robert S. Arthur et al, Simulating nuclear cloud rise within a realistic atmosphere using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 254, 2021, 118363, ISSN 1352-2310,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118363; KEYWORDS: Nuclear detonation; radiation; fallout; plume; meteorology; multispectral; operational algorithm