Co Orbital Threat Prediction and Assessment

OUSD (R&E) MODERNIZATION PRIORITY: Network Command, Control and Communications; Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning TECHNOLOGY AREA(S): Space Platform; Battlespace The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), 22 CFR Parts 120-130, which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services, including export of sensitive technical data, or the Export Administration Regulation (EAR), 15 CFR Parts 730-774, which controls dual use items. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals (FNs), their country(ies) of origin, the type of visa or work permit possessed, and the statement of work (SOW) tasks intended for accomplishment by the FN(s) in accordance with the Announcement. Offerors are advised foreign nationals proposed to perform on this topic may be restricted due to the technical data under US Export Control Laws. Please direct questions to the Air Force SBIR/STTR HelpDesk: usaf.team@afsbirsttr.us. OBJECTIVE: Develop methods for anticipating adversary spacecraft Courses of Action (CoAs) that differentiate between threat types; address finite burn, continuous thrust, and impulsive maneuvers; and encompass three body dynamics for beyond GEO objects. DESCRIPTION: Battlespace awareness within the space domain is a critical foundation for planning appropriate courses of action, responding to threats, protecting vulnerable assets, and preparing contingency plans. The ability to maintain flexible deterrent options in various situations relies upon maintaining an accurate picture of (1) what is happening now, and (2) what could happen in the future. Because the set of future possibilities is infinite, it is important to broadly characterize these possibilities, and to best understand those which require a response or present the greatest threats to our assets and affect the service they provide. Classifying threats' possible actions, the object's subsequent trajectory, and what threats it can pose from along that trajectory are critical to maintaining object custody and awareness. PHASE I: Identify potential solutions that enables prediction and characterization of co-orbital threats, and effectively manage the large set of future possibilities. Evaluate the solutions' feasibility and tractability for use in an operational environment. Compare performance and computation time for the investigated solutions. Proposed solutions should address finite burn, continuous thrust, and impulsive maneuvers, differentiate between kinetic and non-kinetic threats, and address three body dynamics for beyond GEO objects. GFE is not anticipated. PHASE II: Develop prototype software that enables prediction and characterization of co-orbitals threats and manages the large number of future possibilities in a manner that is digestible and actionable for the user. Generate simulated threat trajectories and observations for threats in all orbital regimes with both continuous and impulsive thrust maneuvers. Demonstrate prototype capabilities by processing the simulated data. Display predicted courses of action and Indications and Warnings (I&W) in a prototype user interface with basic data visualization. GFE is not anticipated. PHASE III DUAL USE APPLICATIONS: Mature prototype co-orbital threat monitoring software to at least TRL 7. Identify transition environment for integration into existing I&W infrastructures. Provide integration and other technical support to operational users. REFERENCES: The Aerospace Corporation, "Space Threat Assessment 2021," 2021. S. M. Brown, "Knowledge Acquisition for Adversary Course of Action Prediction Models," AAAI Technical Report FS-02-05, 2002. E. J. Santos, D. Li, E. E. Santos and J. Korah, "Temporal Bayesian Knowledge Bases - Reasoning About Uncertainty with Temporal Constraints," Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 39, no. 17, pp. 12905-12917, 2012. KEYWORDS: Indications and Warning; Orbit Determination; Data Science; Course of Action Prediction; Threat Identification; Threat Characterization SS Radio Occultation; LEO; Hypersonics